1.4 Thinking like a Bayesian 3/4

1.4.1 Bayesian balancing act

Two claims:

• Zuofo claims he can predict the outcome of coin flip

• Kavya claims she can distinguish between natural and artificial sweeteners

If both succeed with a 10/10 sucess rate what can we conclude from this?

The frequentist approach will discard prior knowledge (it is harder to predict coin flip that having a sensitive palate to sweeteners) and the Bayesian want to use this prior knowledge.

-> How can we balance Prior and Data?