8.4 Posterior prediction

What number would you predict are done by artists that are Gen X or younger?

Predict the outcome of new data $Y'$

• Sampling variability in the data
• Posterior variability in $\pi$

Generally, greater $\pi$ is, the greater $Y'$ tends to be.

$$f(y'|y)= \int{f(y'|\pi)f(\pi|y)d\pi}$$