8.4 Posterior prediction

What number would you predict are done by artists that are Gen X or younger?

Predict the outcome of new data \(Y'\)

• Sampling variability in the data
• Posterior variability in \(\pi\)

Generally, greater \(\pi\) is, the greater \(Y'\) tends to be.

\[f(y'|y)= \int{f(y'|\pi)f(\pi|y)d\pi}\]