2.1 Building a Bayesian model for events

The fake_news data set

%0 a Prior: 40% of the articles are fake c Posterior: Is the article fake or not?! a->c b Data: ! more common among fake news b->c

Figure 2.1: Bayesian knowledge-building diagram for wether or not the article is fake

Two variables:
- fake vs real
- contains exclamation (!) or not

2.1.1 Workflow:

  1. Prior probability model

  2. A model for interpreting the data

  3. Posterior probability model