8.2 Methods

8.2.1 Trend

library(tidyverse)
aus_economy <- global_economy |>
  filter(Code == "AUS") |>
  mutate(Pop = Population / 1e6)
autoplot(aus_economy, Pop) +
  labs(y = "Millions", title = "Australian population")

fit <- aus_economy |>
  model(
    AAN = ETS(Pop ~ error("A") + trend("A") + season("N"))
  )
fc <- fit |> forecast(h = 10)