5.9 Value of a single

Final state of a home run: bases empty

Final sate of a single: depends on movement of runners on bases

hr_single <- singles |>
  select(state) |>
  table()
hr_single

## state
## 000 0 000 1 000 2 001 0 001 1 001 2 010 0 010 1 010 2 011 0 011 1 011 2 100 0 
##  6920  4767  3763    71   323   354   516   745   864    90   224   208  1665 
## 100 1 100 2 101 0 101 1 101 2 110 0 110 1 110 2 111 0 111 1 111 2 
##  1974  1765   159   321   368   364   697   729   115   280   257

By bases:

##   000   001   010   011   100   101   110   111 
## 15450   748  2125   522  5404   848  1790   652

Most singles occur with bases empty

What is the most valuable single from the run value perspective?

singles |> 
  arrange(desc(run_value)) |>
  select(state, new_state, run_value) |>
  slice_head(n = 1)

## # A tibble: 1 × 3
##   state new_state run_value
##   <chr> <chr>         <dbl>
## 1 111 2 001 2          2.68

The Baseball-Reference notes the center fielder made an error on fielding the single that allowed all three runners to score and the batter to reach third

Smallest run values:

singles |> 
  arrange(run_value) |>
  select(state, new_state, run_value) |>
  slice(1)

## # A tibble: 1 × 3
##   state new_state run_value
##   <chr> <chr>         <dbl>
## 1 010 0 100 1        -0.621

A runner on second was hit by the ball in play and called out, creating a negative run value

The benefit of the single depends on the advancement of the runners