5.4 Measuring Success of a Batting Play

Run Value- value of plate appearance; state will change and run expectancy will be updated

\[\text{Run Value} = Runs_{\text{New state}} - Runs_{\text{Old state}} + Runs_{\text{Scored on Play}}\]

Data handling:

  • Match expected run values for beginning of each plate appearance by matching bases and outs to run expectancy matrix

  • Match new bases and new outs to run expectancy matrix

  • Set run values with 3 outs to 0

  • End with: run expectancy of current state, run expectancy of new state, difference of run expectancy of current state and new state plus run scored