5.3 Creating the Matrix

Consider plays with change in:

  • runners on bases

  • number of outs

  • runs scored

Get states (baserunners and outs) to identify changes and filter

Only consider half-innings with 3 outs [small bias]

Run expectancy (exp. number of runs scored in the remainder of the inning):

Change over time:

Few changes in average run scoring tendencies of MLB teams 2002-2016