7.1 Goals of the Analysis and Nature of Data

7.1.1 Output is Continuous

  • Example: How do explanatory variables such as lifestyle or chronic diagnoses affect LE / DALYs
  • Traditional regression models, including linear regression (OLS), ridge & lasso
  • Coefficient estimates quantify the association between changes in input and changes in outcome.

7.1.2 Output is Categorical or Binary

  • Outcome is categorical (e.g., disease/no disease)
  • Can use logistic regression (more common for explaining)
  • Or classification (more common for predicting)

7.1.3 Systemic Modelling / Simulation

  • For complex systems modelled by multiple equations
  • Typically more predictive
  • Have a series of equations to fit to data, for example SIR model
  • May wish to change parameters for sensitivity or explore how changes to inputs affects predicted outcome

7.1.4 Time-Series

  • Data has a temporal or seasonal aspect (influenza?)
  • Models like ARIMA can be used to model autocorrelation & trends