Using the model to predict

Suppose some state engages in a program to promote strength training, and manages over several years to successfully get a 32% participation rate. With this simple model, what would we predict for obesity rate in that state to be?

61.9 - 1.1*32

## [1] 26.7

So we would predict 26.7% obesity, with an uncertainty of 2.5% points. (e.g. a 95% CI can be estimated as 21.7% to 31.7%)

As the text states, this is understating the uncertainty since we have not included the uncertainty of the fitted parameters. This will be fixed in chapter 9