Chat GPT Poem

You have many models to choose
But which one will win or lose?
Use elpd to evaluate
Measure how models anticipate


ELPD is the expected log predictive density
It sums up the log of the probability
Of seeing a new dataset based on the model you fit
The higher the elpd, the better it is


ELPD can be estimated in different ways
You can use cross-validation or Bayesian LOO
But whichever method you choose to use
Remember that elpd is just one clue