5.2 Where’s Your Variation?

What can we infer from the above relationship?

Conclude

  • Negative statistical relationship between avocado prices and quantity sold
  • Nothing else.

Cannot conclude

  • Increase in avocado price caused lower sales
  • How supply and demand interact to influence price
What research questions might we produce from this chart?
  • What is effect of price increase on avocados demanded?
  • How does number of avocados brought to market influence price charged?
  • Effect of price on number of avocados brought to market?
  • Temporal effect of quantity demanded from prior week on subsequent week
Can we answer our research questions using the chart? No

DGP and Isolating Variation

  • How can we find variation in data that answers our question?
  • What is the variation that we want to find? Assume we want to determine effect of price on demand for avocados
  • Need to have some knowledge about DGP to address these questions

Avocado DGP

  • Assume avocado suppliers set plan for weekly avocado prices at beginning of each month
  • Explanations due to suppliers setting prices or quantities only matter between months
  • Using this information, we can isolate variation due to consumers only.